Work

From diagnosis to action: Unveiling provincial-level levers for building carbon reduction in China via spatio-temporal clustering and grey-relational screening

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Facing the "one-size-fits-all" dilemma in China's building-sector carbon governance, we propose a replicable spatio-temporal targeting framework that translates diagnostic analytics into actionable mitigation levers. Using 2006–2022 data for 30 provinces, we first quantify carbon-reduction performance through an economy-adjusted Tapio index, then map inter-provincial spillover channels via a modified gravity-SNA network. Temporal clustering employs two-stage temporal clustering (DTW-Ward + shape K-means), while spatial clustering optimises K-Medoids centroids by Harris Hawks Optimisation on SNA centrality indicators. The intersection yields four archetypes: Potential-Core, Potential-Periphery, Accumulation-Periphery and Pressure-Periphery. Grey-relational screening extracts the top-three drivers for each archetype and feeds them into differentiated policy bundles that couple pressure gradients with network centrality. Core provinces (Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong) function as network stabilisers and technology exporters; peripheral provinces receive tailored fiscal, certification and freight instruments to offset lock-in risks.

Source: Sustainable Futures

DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101786

Authors: Li Zhang, Zhihong Jiang, Jiafei Zhou

Institution: Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture

Language: English

Topic: Energy, Environment, Economic Growth

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Sustainable cities and communities, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,340