Work

Systematic Evaluation and Correction of Extreme Water Level in Global Storm Surge Simulation

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Extreme sea levels resulting from storm surges are a major contributor to coastal flood risk and are often assessed using outputs from global storm surge models. However, these models exhibit systematic errors, particularly in data‐sparse regions. Here, we present a novel framework to improve simulated extreme water levels. The method applies quantile mapping to peaks‐over‐threshold extremes, is calibrated using paired observed and simulated annual maxima at tide gauges, and transfers the correction models from reference stations to nearby sites within a defined radius. Results show that the approach achieves consistent improvements within about 400 km of gauges, with median relative improvements of −0.84 in mean squared error and −0.60 in normalized root‐mean‐square error. Systematic errors are reduced most in high‐latitude, low‐wind regions. These findings highlight the transferability of the correction models and show that even sparse observations can improve extreme sea‐level estimates for global coastal hazard assessment.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl119793

Authors: Yuqing Li, Ze Jiang, Shaohong Wu, Jiangbo Gao, Ashish Sharma

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Language: English

Topic: Coastal and Marine Dynamics

Subfield: Earth-Surface Processes

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190