External validation of four models predicting treatment success after interdisciplinary multimodal pain treatment
Year: 2026
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: PURPOSE: Externally validate, recalibrate, and update four prediction models for interdisciplinary multimodal pain treatment (IMPT) success in chronic musculoskeletal pain (CMP). METHODS: Routine care data from individuals with CMP undergoing a 10-week IMPT was analyzed. Success was assessed using four outcomes: patients' recovery perspective in disability, physical and mental quality of life, and disability. We evaluated 63 demographic and candidate predictors, primarily patient reported outcome measures. RESULTS: Data of 2204 individuals were analyzed, achieving success rates of 38%, 28%, 29%, and 52% for recovery perspective, physical and mental quality of life, and disability, respectively. After updating, calibration was similar to the original models, but discrimination was slightly reduced (-0.06 to -0.02). Furthermore, the four models included 19 predictors (one consistent across all) and demonstrated strong calibration and mostly acceptable discrimination (AUC 0.66-0.74). Decision curve analysis indicated greater net benefit for the updated models than treat-all or treat-none across clinically relevant thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: " (i.e., expected treatment effect) emerged as the most consistent predictor. Predictor relevance varied by outcome, underscoring the importance of careful outcome selection. These results support patient-centered care, and tailoring interventions to individual factors for optimal treatment success.
Source: Disability and Rehabilitation
Language: English
Subfield: Pharmacology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7140055407