Physically-based assessment and redefinition of existing rainfall thresholds in territorial warning systems for shallow landslides
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Rainfall thresholds adopted in territorial landslide early warning systems (Te-LEWS) typically rely on statistical analyses of precipitation without any physical correlation with the infiltration dynamics into the soil. On the other hand, the use of physically-based modelling that feeds procedures warning for landslides is typically limited at systems operational at local scale. This paper proposes an original approach integrating geotechnical modeling and data-driven analysis to interpret empirical rainfall thresholds used in Te-LEWS and to define new physically-based rainfall thresholds for the initiation of shallow landslides. Physically-based thresholds differ from the traditional empirical ones as they account for the actual physical processes governing soil behaviour. To this aim, the proposed procedure exploits relationships between rainfall characteristics, geotechnical parameters, infiltration processes, and slope stability conditions. The framework is structured into four key modules: geotechnical modelling; equalization time matrix generation; thresholds interpretation; thresholds definition. The procedure is proposed and tested in Campania region, southern Italy, although it is structured to be general and can be easily adapted to other territorial warning models employing empirical rainfall thresholds. This study can be considered an attempt to overcome the traditional dichotomy between empirical and physically-based approaches, considering them synergic rather than alternatives.
Source: Engineering Geology
Language: English
Subfield: Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,210
OpenAlex ID: W7140097038