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What Drives Overstay? The Case of Afghan Asylum Seekers in Germany

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The paper is structured around three main contributions. First, it takes advantage of a unique survey on Afghan asylum seekers in Germany to provide novel descriptive insights into asylum seekers’ beliefs about their outcomes and the associated intention to overstay. Second, it estimates asylum seekers’ perceived ex ante returns on overstaying and option values of regularisation, deportation, and experimentation. Third, it assesses and rejects the cost-effectiveness argument for assisted voluntary return policies. Instead, it estimates a sizeable willingness-to-pay of asylum seekers for investments that would guarantee their regularisation.

Source: Journal of the European Economic Association

DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvag012

Authors: Romuald Méango, François Poinas

Institutions: University of Oxford, Toulouse School of Economics, Université de Toulouse, Université Toulouse Capitole

Language: English

Topic: Migration, Refugees, and Integration

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,668

Funder: Agence Nationale de la Recherche