Work

Modeling and prediction of tropospheric ozone based on singular spectrum analysis and linear recurrent formula in Campo Grande, Brazil

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This study applies Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and the Linear Recurrent Formula (LRF) to model and forecast daily tropospheric ozone (O₃) concentrations in Campo Grande, Brazil, using satellite data from the SISAM/INPE system for the period 2000–2018. The original O₃ series was decomposed into interpretable components that revealed annual, semi-annual, and quarterly oscillations associated with regional meteorological dynamics and photochemical processes. SSA efficiently separated the signal from noise, while the selection of window length (L = 30, 60, 90) influenced the identification of dominant periodic structures. Forecasting with the LRF model yielded satisfactory performance (RMSE = 0.789 ppb; MAE = 0.636 ppb). Although a statistically significant upward trend was detected ( p < 0.01), its low explanatory power (R² = 0.009) indicates that O₃ variability is mainly controlled by seasonal and meteorological factors. The results confirm the robustness of the SSA–LRF approach as a non-parametric framework for detecting temporal structures and predicting short-term ozone fluctuations in tropical urban environments, contributing to air quality monitoring and environmental management strategies.

Source: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

DOI: 10.1007/s00703-026-01128-9

Authors: Amaury de Souza, Rafael da Silva Palácios, José Francisco de Oliveira, Danielle Christine Stenner Nassarden

Institutions: Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Universidade Federal do Pará, Universidade Federal de Alagoas

Language: English

Topic: Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting

Subfield: Environmental Engineering

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,890