Work

It will rain: The effect of information on flood preparedness in urban Mozambique

Year: 2026

Type: article

Study designs: Randomized Controlled Trial, Clinical Trial

Abstract: Floods are among the costliest and most recurring natural hazards. Many governments provide disaster preparedness information, but there is limited evidence of its effectiveness. Using a randomized experiment across 300 urban communities in Mozambique, I show that providing information on flood risk increased the implementation of suggested mitigation strategies, measured objectively (using a machine learning-based algorithm to detect solid waste, a major flood hazard, in over 25,000 photos) and through self-reported behaviors. Sending flood preparedness text messages proved to be at least as effective as more resource-intensive interventions that involved household visits and video screenings. Risk perception increased, particularly in lower-risk areas, suggesting that information and past experiences contribute to community preparedness by shaping perceived flood risk. These findings highlight the importance of communication in mobilizing communities for disaster risk management, even in contexts where flood risks are presumably already well-known, and underscore the potential of low-cost, scalable communication tools.

Source: Journal of Development Economics

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103787

Author: Stefan Leeffers

Institution: University College London

Language: English

Topic: Flood Risk Assessment and Management

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,590