Immigration and the Unemployment Rate in 2023–2024
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The increase in the US unemployment rate observed from early 2023 until late 2024 primarily reflected a decline in the job-finding rate. Using the share of noncitizens in the US labor market as a measure of immigration, this Economic Commentary evaluates two mechanisms through which a higher share of noncitizens coming from post-pandemic immigration could hypothetically affect the job-finding rate. First, noncitizens may have systematically lower job-finding rates than citizens. Second, during slowdowns, noncitizens' job-finding and other transition rates may deteriorate more rapidly and extensively than those of US citizens. Evaluating both mechanisms, we find no evidence that the higher share of noncitizens in the labor market contributed to the rise in the unemployment rate during 2023 and 2024.
Institution: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Language: English
Topic: Migration and Labor Dynamics
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7140212124