Work

Spatial early-warning of carbon imbalance risk in major function-oriented zones: the case of Henan Province, China

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Identifying carbon imbalance risk (CIR) of Major Function-Oriented Zones (MFOZ) has great significance for realizing the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality (“dual carbon” goals) and optimizing the governance of territorial space. However, previous studies rarely focused on the early warning areas of CIR in MFOZ, which restricted the formation of low-carbon oriented territorial space pattern. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of CIR in MFOZ of Henan Province during 2001-2020, and identified the early warning areas of CIR for MFOZ. The results revealed that the CIR increased first and then decreased, and the high risk zones were clustered around the Zhengzhou metropolitan area. The CIR types were dominated by natural background type and urban expansion type, while other types accounted for only 36.95%. The average indexes of CIR in urbanized areas, major agricultural production areas and key ecological functional areas were 0.522, 0.380 and 0.352, respectively. 78 counties/districts have been identified as warning of CIR, the warning counties/districts in urbanized functional areas were clustered in Zhengzhou, Luoyang, and Kaifeng. In the future, it is essential to adopt a series of measures, including establishing a dynamic monitoring mechanism, improving the early warning system, implementing differentiated governance strategies, building a cross-functional collaborative reduction mechanism, and strengthening the connection with the carbon trading market.

Source: Environmental Research Letters

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae5725