Sensitivity Analysis: JuMBOs Artificial Hypothesis
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The 2024–2026 observational updates increase the artificial hypothesis posterior by 6–14 percentage points (from 14% baseline to 20–28% current range). The upper bound (28%) is reached if 2026–2027 Roman + ELT data confirm persistent wide-binary excess and deuterium depletion in older field populations.This Bayesian update strengthens the strategic case for: - Continued JuMBO population characterization - Spectroscopic surveys targeting deuterium abundance - Long-baseline astrometric monitoring - Gravitational wave detector sensitivity improvements The framework remains falsifiable via clear 2030 decision criteria tied to specific instruments and observational programs. Version note, October 10, 2026. The 20–28% posterior stated in this record was superseded in April 2026 by the v4 postscript to JuMBOs as Technosignature Platforms (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19858245), which places the artificial-modification hypothesis at 5–10% pending spectroscopic confirmation of any individual candidate and revises the combinatorial framework confidence from 60–85% to about 55–78%. The table in this record is preserved as the March 2026 state of evidence. Its binary-fraction row is corrected in that postscript, and the “field lower” half of that row is withdrawn in the v5 addendum to the same paper (P.17). Its Rodríguez proper-motion row is rescored there as modestly negative (P.9): the limit of about 6 km/s is from Rodríguez et al. (2025, ApJ 984, 166), who conclude that it favors an origin “similar to that of stars, that is, from a stationary contracting core.” Section 1.3.1’s reference to Roman microlensing data in 2025 is an error: the Roman Space Telescope launched on 30 August 2026 and had returned no data when this record was deposited. The 2030 test in Section 1.4 cannot be carried out as written. Roman’s microlensing survey cannot detect planetary-mass binaries at the 28–384 au separations reported for the Trapezium pairs; Sajadian (2025, MNRAS 544, 1981, https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staf1858), simulating pairs with total masses up to 100 Earth masses, finds its detection efficiency falls to zero beyond about 1 au. Its free-floating lenses also provide no light for spectroscopic follow-up.
Author: Hughes, Mark
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7140800956
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