Burdens and risk factors for female esophageal cancer from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2050: a cross-sectional study
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The global burden of female esophageal cancer (EC) remains unclear, so we aimed to clarify this burden and project future trends. METHODS: Data on the female EC were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) assessed the average change. The correlation among the burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI) was analyzed. The risk factors to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were confirmed. Frontier analysis evaluated potential improvements. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends. RESULTS: There were approximately 148142.2 new female EC cases, 138805.5 deaths and 3109564.3 DALYs in 2021. Compared with 1990, the age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, mortality, and DALYs in 2021 decreased globally and increased only in Western Sub-Saharan Africa. The ASRs and corresponding EAPCs were negatively correlated with the SDI. In the high- and middle-high-SDI regions, the DALYs attributable to tobacco were the highest, whereas in the middle-, middle-low-, and low-SDI regions, diet low in vegetables was the primary risk factor. Fifteen countries showed the greatest potential improvements. The ASRs of EC incidence, mortality, and DALYs are projected to decrease globally by 2050, showing a very slow decrease in Western Sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSION: The global burden of female EC decreased from 1990 to 2021 and was negatively correlated with the SDI, this trend is expected to continue in future, with significantly regional variations. These can guide the prevention and control strategies for female EC patients worldwide.
Source: Annals of Medicine
Language: English
Subfield: Surgery
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,557
OpenAlex ID: W7140923799