Climate risks of global deployed solar photovoltaic systems
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Solar photovoltaics (PV) are vital to the global energy transition, yet their climate resilience remains poorly understood. Existing projections typically evaluate theoretical PV power generation potential ( P solarPV ) across all land surfaces, rather than at actual PV-deployment sites. Here, we assess climate risks to global operational PV systems over 2015–2100 under three greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. We found that under a high-emission scenario, rising temperatures outweigh solar radiation gains, causing a net decline in global P solarPV by 2100, with Northern America experiencing the most severe losses. High emissions also impair the PV power reliability, increasing the annual frequencies of poor-power days while decreasing rich-power days. Although intra-annual volatilities in P solarPV weakens globally, it intensifies in key regions like central Europe. Our results reveal a spatial mismatch between current PV infrastructure and climate-resilient zones, underscoring that emission mitigation and strategic, diversified deployment are imperative for a secure solar-powered future.
Source: Environmental Research Letters
Authors: Deshuai Zhang, Ying Ding, Zhuolin Ouyang, Yanjun Li, Amal Baqais, Peng Wang, Haicheng Zhang
Language: English
Subfield: Artificial Intelligence
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,045
Award: G3371496669
OpenAlex ID: W7143543347