Work

Development and validation of an Early Warning System for coastal flooding operating on a Mediterranean urban beach

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: . This study presents an Early Warning System (EWS) for coastal flooding that integrates wind, wave, and sea level forecasts which are validated using in-situ records. The system employs the SWAN spectral wave model to simulate nearshore hydrodynamics while an empirical approach is used to assess Total Watel Level (TWL) exceedances over a user-defined morphological threshold, deriving from analytical topographic surveys. This approach utilizes six widely used empirical methods for wave run-up estimation and makes use of the most effective one after calibration. The performance of the EWS is assessed through six monitored flood events of varying magnitude and hydrodynamic conditions, demonstrating strong agreement between projected TWL exceedances and observed flooding occurrences, particularly under high-energy wave conditions. Minor discrepancies are noted during events with marginal TWL exceedances over short durations. Results underscore the system’s potential as a valuable tool for coastal hazard assessment and risk management, with future improvements focusing on dynamic updates of the beach morphology and the integration of suitable machine learning algorithms.

Source: Natural hazards and earth system sciences

DOI: 10.5194/nhess-26-1573-2026