Work

Climate Change Impacts on Water Security in Ethiopia: A systematic Review of Hydroclimatic Trends, Resilience Strategies, and Governance in Major River Basins

Year: 2026

Type: review

Abstract: This systematic review synthesizes 50 studies (2009–2025) examining climate change impacts on water security across Ethiopia's Abbay (Blue Nile), Awash, Omo-Gibe, and Rift Valley Lakes basins. Following PRISMA 2020 guidelines with dual-independent screening and thematic synthesis, we harmonized heterogeneous projections from diverse climate models and scenarios to enable robust cross-study comparison. Findings reveal a dominant mid- to end-century drying signal under high-emission pathways, driven by temperature-induced evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation changes. Projected impacts exhibit pronounced basin-specificity: Rift Valley Lakes shows groundwater recharge declines of 47–53% and water yield reductions of 48% by 2080s (RCP8.5); Awash shows mean annual flow reductions of 10–29% by 2050s. Abbay and Omo-Gibe exhibit scenario-dependence: under moderate pathways, Abbay shows potential flow increases of 10–25% by 2080s, while under high emissions water yield contracts by 22.7%. The review's central contribution is a basin-specific governance diagnosis: the gap between policy ideals and operational realities manifests as an enforcement deficit in Awash (>70% unlicensed abstractions), transboundary coordination void in Abbay, sectoral capture in Omo-Gibe, and regulatory drift in Rift Valley Lakes (<40% permit compliance). These findings demonstrate that hydrological outcomes are mediated by institutional design. Strengthening basin authorities through targeted investments enforcement capacity, transboundary benefit-sharing, multi-sector oversight, and compliance protocols can mitigate risks. These insights are transferable to other water-stressed regions facing similar challenges. • Synthesizes 50 studies (2009–2025) on climate-water security across Ethiopia's four major river basins. • Projects severe drying under high emissions: Rift Valley recharge down 47–53%, Awash flow down 10–29% by 2050s. • Identifies socio-economic pressures (irrigation conflicts, weak enforcement) as key amplifiers of hydroclimatic risks. • Advocates adaptive governance with integrated IWRM, early-warning systems, and multi-sector participation. • Urges multi-model projections and interdisciplinary research for equitable, climate-resilient water policy.

Source: Progress in Disaster Science

DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100562

Authors: Abebe M. Legass, Tena Alamirew, Solomon G. Gebrehiwot, David Haro-Monteagudo, Lewoye Tsegaye

Institutions: Addis Ababa University, Water and Land Resource Centre, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen, University of Aberdeen, Bahir Dar University

Language: English

Topic: Water resources management and optimization

Subfield: Ocean Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Clean water and sanitation, Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,120