Work

Winters of discontent

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Do short-run weather shocks affect migration? I estimate how snow influences county-level migration in the Great Lakes region since 1970. I isolate responses to snow by comparing its effect on net migration across regions exposed to lake-effect snow (LES)—heavy snow generated downwind of the Great Lakes. Higher-than-average snowfall in lake-effect regions leads to net population loss the following year. This effect is driven by reductions in in-migrants, dissipates after 1–2 years, and is strongest for young and middle-aged populations. Snow has virtually no effect on migration in non-lake-effect regions, suggesting that baseline exposure interacts with anomalous weather events. • Above-normal snowfall reduces net migration in lake-effect snow counties in the Great Lakes region but not in other counties. • The migration response to snow in lake-effect counties is driven by reductions in in-migration. • Snow effects are largest for young and middle-aged adults and dissipate within one to two years.

Source: Journal of Public Economics

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105637

Author: Casey J. Wichman

Institutions: Georgia Institute of Technology, Resources For The Future

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,510