Work

Anthropogenic and climatic factors regulate algal bloom intensity and timing in global lakes under climate change

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Algal blooms are becoming more frequent and intense in lakes worldwide, but how bloom intensity and timing co-vary at the global scale is unclear. Here we analyze two decades of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite observations for 4085 lakes ( > 20 square kilometres) to compare changes in intensity (fractional floating algal cover) and timing (start and end dates) of surface algal bloom. We find that intensity and timing often change independently: about 71% of lakes show increasing intensity, mainly associated with higher population density and agricultural pressure, whereas temperature and wind better explain shifts in bloom timing, especially in cold regions. Under a medium-emission scenario, tropical lakes show rapid intensification with modest timing shifts, while cold-region lakes exhibit regionally contrasting timing changes. This decoupling may alter lake food webs and carbon cycling, underscoring the need for region-specific management strategies under climate change. Population density and agricultural activity intensify fractional floating algal cover in 71% global lakes, whereas temperature and wind regulate the bloom phenology, according to an analysis of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data across 4085 global lakes for two decades.

Source: Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03446-7

Authors: Kun Xue, Ronghua Ma, Minqi Hu, Yao Li

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Southwest University

Language: English

Topic: Aquatic Ecosystems and Phytoplankton Dynamics

Subfield: Environmental Chemistry

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,490