Response to Foxhall Forbes et al. (2026) “Drought, conflict and the use of historical data and methodologies in interdisciplinary paleoclimatic research”
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Aiming towards a non-deterministic interpretation of environmental and societal linkages during the demise of the Western Roman Empire in the 4th and 5th centuries, we compiled and analysed state-of-the-art tree-ring chronologies together with a wide range of written documentary sources. Our qualitative case-study on the ‘Barbarian Conspiracy’ in Roman Britain in 367 CE was supplemented by a continental-wide network approach for the quantitative assessment of possible linkages between climate and conflict across the entire Roman Empire between 350 and 476 CE. Based on the combined, scale-dependent, multi-proxy evidence, we then developed a mechanistic model to explore the susceptibility of past agrarian societies (i.e., how prolonged droughts may have contributed to harvest failures and food shortages that could have led to systematic pressure, societal instability, and eventually even outright conflict).
Source: Climatic Change
Language: English
Topic: Tree-ring climate responses
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,390
OpenAlex ID: W7146966174