Work

From Shopping to Statistics: Tracking and Nowcasting Private Consumption Expenditures in Real Time

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: ABSTRACT In this paper, we use high‐frequency transaction data to develop a weekly tracker for private consumption expenditures. Furthermore, we apply the transaction data in a nowcasting experiment and compare their performance with other, readily available indicators that are regularly linked to private consumption in Germany. The weekly tracker produces precise estimates and can thus be used in real time, especially in very turbulent times such as a pandemic or the high‐inflation‐phase in its aftermath. In terms of nowcast accuracy, the tracker outperforms all remaining indicators, making it a powerful tool for applied forecasting work. We intend to regularly publish the weekly consumption tracker in the future, thereby complementing the database for Germany.

Source: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

DOI: 10.1111/obes.70069

Authors: Friederike Fourné, Robert Lehmann

Institutions: Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Technische Universität Dresden

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W7147606217

FWCI:

Cites: 24

Cited by: 2

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