Work

Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Pair-instability supernovae leave behind no compact remnants, resulting in a predicted gap in the distribution of stellar black-hole masses. Gravitational waves from binary black-hole mergers probe the relevant mass range and analyses of the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA catalog (GWTC-4) indicate a possible mass cutoff at 40 − 50 M ⊙ . However, the robustness of this result remains unclear. To this end, using full Bayesian parameter estimation, we simulate gravitational-wave catalogs with and without such a mass cutoff and then test whether its presence or absence is correctly inferred with parametric population models. For catalogs similar to GWTC-4, confident identification of a cutoff is not guaranteed, but the best constraints among our simulations are compatible with results from GWTC-4 when the model includes a cutoff. Conversely, spurious identification of a cutoff is unlikely. For catalogs expected by the end of the O4 observing run, uncertainty in the cutoff mass is reduced by ≳ 20 % , but a cutoff at 40 − 50 M ⊙ yields only a lower bound on the C 12 ( α , γ ) 16 O reaction rate, our most stringent constraints on the S factor at 300 keV being S 300 ≳ 125 keV b at 90% credibility. Relative uncertainties on the Hubble parameter H 0 from gravitational-wave data alone can still be up to 100%. We also analyze GWTC-4 with the nonparametric population model, finding that some mass features are more prominent than in parametric models but a sharp cutoff is not required. However, the parametric model passes a likelihood-based predictive test in GWTC-4 and the results are consistent with those from our simulated catalogs with a cutoff. Such tests are necessary to make astrophysical claims from gravitational-wave catalogs.

Source: Physical review. D/Physical review. D.

DOI: 10.1103/sqy9-nnqq

Authors: Matthew Mould, Jack Heinzel, Sofía Álvarez-López, Cailin Plunkett, Noah E. Wolfe, Salvatore Vitale

Institutions: University of Nottingham, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research

Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics

Field: Physics and Astronomy

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Funders: National Science Foundation, Royal Commission for the Exhibition of 1851

Awards: The Operation and Maintenance of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO), The Construction of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (AdvLIGO), CAREER: Populations and Systematic Uncertainties in the Era of the Advanced Gravitational-Wave Detectors, Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP), Research Infrastructure: LIGO Laboratory Operations and Maintenance 2024-2028 -- Exploring the Gravitational-Wave Cosmos