Complementary Predictors for Asthma Attack Prediction in Children: Salivary Microbiome, Serum Inflammatory Mediators, and Past Attack History
Year: 2025
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Early identification of children at risk of asthma attacks is important for optimizing treatment strategies. We aimed to integrate salivary microbiome and serum inflammatory mediator profiles with asthma attacks history to develop a comprehensive predictive model for future attacks. METHODS: This study contained a discovery (SysPharmPediA) and a replication phase (U-BIOPRED). School-aged children with asthma were classified into at risk and no-risk groups, based on the presence or absence of one or more severe attacks during one-year follow-up. Prediction models were developed using random forest on the training set (70%) with data on past asthma attacks, microbiome composition, serum inflammatory mediator levels, and their combinations and then tested on the rest of the population (30%). Outcomes were replicated in a subset of children with severe asthma from U-BIOPRED. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 154 children (SysPharmPediA = 121, U-BIOPRED = 33). In discovery, the model based on past attacks resulted in an area under the receiving characteristic curve (AUROCC) ~ 0.7. Models including six salivary bacteria or six inflammatory mediators achieved similar results. The combined model incorporating seven features, past asthma attacks, Capnocytophaga, Corynebacterium, and Cardiobacterium, TIMP-4, VEGF, and MIP-3β achieved the highest accuracy with AUROCC ~0.87. The combined model in the U-BIOPRED limited to available inflammatory mediators (VEGF), and incorporating past asthma attacks, Capnocytophaga, Corynebacterium, and Cardiobacterium, resulted in an AUROCC of 0.84. CONCLUSION: Serum inflammatory mediators and salivary microbiome complement asthma attacks history for predicting future attacks. These results highlight the imperative for continued investigation into oral microbiota and its interaction with the immune system.
Source: Allergy
DOI: 10.1111/all.70004
Authors: Shahriyar Shahbazi Khamas, Paul Brinkman, Anne H. Neerincx, Susanne J. H. Vijverberg, Simone Hashimoto, Jelle M. Blankestijn, Jan Willem Duitman, Tamara Dekker, Barbara S. Smids, Suzanne W. J. Terheggen‐Lagro, René Lutter, Nariman K. A. Metwally, Fleur Sondaal, Eric G. Haarman, Peter J. Sterk, Ian M. Adcock, Charles Auffray, Corinna Bang, Aruna T. Bansal, Heike Buntrock‐Döpke, Klaus Bønnelykke, Andrew Bush, Bo Lund Chawes, Kian Fan Chung, Paula Corcuera‐Elosegui, Sven‐Erik Dahlén, Ratko Djukanovic, Louise J. Fleming, Stephen J. Fowler, Andre Franke, Urs Frey, Mario Gorenjak, Susanne Brandstetter, Susanne Harner, Gunilla Hedlin, Michael Kabesch, Nazanin Zounemat‐Kermani, Parastoo Kheirolldein, Alexander Kiefer, Jon R. Konradsen, Aletta D. Kraneveld, Leyre López‐Fernández, Clare S. Murray, Björn Nordlund, Maria Pino‐Yanes, Uroš Potočnik, Graham Roberts, Jakob Stokholm, Søren Johannes Sørensen, Olaia Sardón‐Prado, Dominick E. Shaw, Florian Singer, Ana R. Sousa, Jonathan Thorsen, Antoaneta A. Toncheva, Nadja H. Vissing, Christine Wolff, Mahmoud I. Abdel‐Aziz, Anke H. Maitland‐van der Zee, the SysPharmPediA and U‐BIOPRED Consortia
Institutions: Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Public Health, Emma Kinderziekenhuis, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Harefield Hospital, Imperial College London, Lyon 1 Université, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Inserm, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kinderklinik Regensburg, University of Regensburg, Copenhagen University Hospital, Gentofte Hospital, Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood, Donostiako Unibertsitate Ospitalea, Karolinska University Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, University of Basel, University Children’s Hospital Basel, University of Maribor, Utrecht University, Universidad de La Laguna, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red, University Clinical Centre Maribor, University of Copenhagen, University of the Basque Country, University of Leicester, NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre, University of Bern, University of Graz, Medical University of Graz, University Hospital of Bern, GlaxoSmithKline (United Kingdom)
Language: English
Subfield: Physiology (medical)
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $5,300
Funders: Pfizer, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Chiesi Farmaceutici, Universität Basel, University of Bern, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations, Universidad de La Laguna, Inselspital, Universitätsspital Bern, Celltrion, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, GlaxoSmithKline España, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Asthma and Lung UK, University of Leicester, University of Southampton, Imperial College London, European Commission, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, ZonMw, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Universiteit Utrecht, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Gentofte Hospital, Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, Karolinska Institutet, Novo Nordisk, Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS, Stichting Astma Bestrijding, Stockholms Läns Landsting, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Universität Regensburg, Ministrstvo za Izobraževanje, Znanost in Šport, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Univerza v Mariboru, Medizinische Universität Graz, European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Univerzitetni Klinični Center Maribor, Directorate for Biological Sciences, Novartis Pharma, Seventh Framework Programme, Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Innovate UK, Institute of Infection and Immunity, FP7 Health
Awards: G1073258374, G1093531541, G1564535905, G1621720869, G1694759250, G1735998917, G2473961061, G2483593638, Unbiased Biomarkers for the Prediction of Respiratory Disease Outcomes, G2812945485, G31757887, G3207356259, G3277166142, G3727482738, G3819651672, G393177772, G4897104811, G5304737330, G5702163051, G573369099, G5878972985, G6104069830, G6203947061, G7476814359, G7932665190, G8711597290
OpenAlex ID: W4413286314