Work

Spatiotemporal Distribution in Rainfall and Temperature from CMIP6 Models: A Downscaling and Correction Study in a Semi-Arid Region of Mexico

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Water planning in semi-arid regions depends on climate information that resolves both seasonal timing and topographic gradients. This study evaluated 15 CMIP6 models over Zacatecas, Mexico, and produced a 1 km historical dataset for 1985–2014 by statistically refining bias-corrected daily fields from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. Downscaling was referenced to the CHELSA climatology: temperature was refined using an elevation-informed hybrid spline approach, whereas rainfall was downscaled with geographically weighted regression (GWR) to represent orographic gradients. The resulting fields were assessed against two independent observational baselines: an automated INIFAP network (2004–2014) and a conventional CONAGUA network (1985–2014). For temperature, BCC-CSM2-MR showed the highest performance, with a Pearson correlation of R = 0.94 for both Tmax and Tmin. A consistent network-dependent bias pattern was identified: the downscaled models overestimated the diurnal temperature range relative to INIFAP but underestimated it relative to CONAGUA, highlighting the influence of instrumentation and observational protocols on model evaluation. For rainfall, ACCESS-ESM1-5 reproduced the seasonal cycle and dominant orographic patterns, with a correlation of R = 0.611 despite the intrinsic stochasticity of semi-arid rainfall. The resulting 1 km fields provide a spatially consistent baseline for regional applications, including stochastic weather generation and impact models in complex semi-arid regions.

Source: Water

DOI: 10.3390/w18070874