Regional assessment of typhoon wind, wave, and current multi-hazards for offshore structure design using SWAN + ADCIRC: Sensitivity to reanalysis wind forcings and extreme value distributions
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This study develops a comprehensive framework for regional assessments of typhoon-induced wind, wave, and current multi-hazards required for offshore structure design using SWAN+ADCIRC coupled numerical models. A primary focus is on sensitivity analysis of estimated high-quantile extremes to the reanalysis wind forcing datasets and extreme value distributions, which remain underexplored. Results reveal that the choice of reanalysis dataset has a limited impact on design-level extremes. However, the selection of extreme value models significantly affects estimated hazards. Generally, the obtained hazard maps for 50-year return period values using the generalized extreme value distribution, generalized Pareto distribution, and optimal distribution (based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov criterion) are comparable, with uncertainties within 10%, whereas Gumbel distribution results in a larger deviation of up to 20%. Spatial analysis shows that the current extremes exhibit greater spatial variability due to localized seabed topography effects. Additionally, a logistic model-based multivariate extreme value distribution is proposed for modelling typhoon wind, wave, and current tri-variates, demonstrating that the obtained environmental contours are highly site-dependent and vary significantly due to the use of different marginal distributions. These findings provide valuable insights for robustly and reliably assessing the design-level hazards and the characterization and modelling of regional typhoon multi-hazards for offshore structure design.
Source: Weather and Climate Extremes
Authors: Y.B. Zhang, H. Cheng, C. Sheng, K.S. Dai
Institution: Sichuan University
Language: English
Subfield: Oceanography
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,969
OpenAlex ID: W7150849570