Examining possible future trajectories of global space sectors
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Governments have a significant influence in shaping the trajectory of the space industry as investors, operators, regulators and customers. This research analyses the space strategies of twelve governments around the globe, mapping them onto four potential future scenarios. Based on these scenarios, the authors suggest actions towards an equitable future of Earth-Space sustainability. Results indicate that Brazil and Russia lean towards a scenario where space is seen as a limitless resource to be marketed, neglecting environmental sustainability. Europe, the African Union and India tend to utilise space for national development and sustainability on Earth, but not in space. The USA leans towards viewing space as a new paradise for settlements, assuming Earth's uninhabitability is inevitable. China and Germany are inclined to regard Earth as part of a larger system, prioritising the interconnected sustainability on Earth and in space. France, the UK, New Zealand and Australia fall in between multiple scenarios.
Source: Earth System Governance
Authors: Ronda Geise, Priyanka Dhopade
Institution: University of Auckland
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,180
OpenAlex ID: W7150852666