Work

Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Amplify Disproportionate Climate Risks for Low‐Income Nations

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Droughts and hot extremes, individually and in combination, are intensifying, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, a globally comparable and cross‐national assessment of the future risks posed by these events remains a critical gap. Our analysis shows that under current policies, leading to ∼2.7°C warming by 2100, 28.5% ± 9.3% of the global population (roughly 2.6 ± 0.9 billion people) may face heightened compound hot‐dry extremes. Based on present‐day per capita emissions, the cumulative lifetime emissions of ∼3.4 average global citizens (or ∼1.2 average US citizens) could expose one individual to these conditions by the end of century. Tropical island nations are expected to experience the most severe increases in compound hot‐dry extremes. More critically, low‐income countries, despite contributing minimally to global emissions, are projected to suffer more frequently than high‐income countries. These findings underscore the urgent need for equity‐focused, immediate policy action to address the socio‐economic disparities exacerbated by climate change.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118822

Authors: Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xianyao Chen, Monica Ionita

Institutions: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Ocean University of China, University of Bremen, Laoshan Laboratory, Ştefan cel Mare University of Suceava

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Reduced inequalities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190