Re‐Interpreting Genetic Offset: Quantifying the Least Required Evolutionary Rate Under Climate Change at the Mediterranean Range Margin of European Beech
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: ABSTRACT European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) spans a wide range of European climates and exhibits evidence of local adaptation, which supports its persistence under diverse conditions. We analysed 18 populations—distributed across an altitude gradient on the southwestern geographic range edge of the species—using landscape genomics to assess their adaptive variation and vulnerability to future climatic conditions. We uncovered weak but structured genetic differentiation, revealing three main climate‐tied genetic groups. Combining multiple Genotype–Environment Association (GEA) approaches—linear, such as Latent Factor Mixed Models (LFMM) or Redundancy Analyses (RDA), and non‐linear (Gradient Forest)—we identified 373 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) detected by all GEA methods as being putatively associated with climate gradients. Using the Gradient Forest model, we mapped genetic offset across all 21st century periods under a key climate scenario: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5, forcing 8.5 W/m 2 (SSP585) and across all SSPs for 2061–2080, identifying Pyrenean and pre‐Pyrenean regions as maladaptation hotspots. To capture temporal dynamics, we introduce a novel approach to interpret genetic offset. The Required Evolutionary Rate (REvoRate) quantifies the minimum genetic change per year needed to keep pace with projected climates. Joint interpretation of offset and REvoRate revealed that some stands with moderate offsets face high short‐term adaptive demands, while others with larger offsets are required to evolve more gradually. The drought‐temperature gradient emerged as the main driver of allele frequency turnover, with geography contributing through isolation by distance. Together, genetic offset and REvoRate provide a dynamic framework to assess temporal maladaptation risk. Our results highlight the need to integrate standing genetic variation and evolutionary potential into forest management and conservation planning to ensure the persistence of F. sylvatica in one of its most climate‐vulnerable range margins.
Source: Evolutionary Applications
DOI: 10.1111/eva.70230
Institutions: Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, Écologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes, Universitat de Barcelona, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Kazimierz Wielki University in Bydgoszcz, Universitat de Vic - Universitat Central de Catalunya, University of Stirling
Language: English
Subfield: Genetics
Domain: Life Sciences
SDG: Life on land
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $4,320
Funders: Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, European Commission, Narodowym Centrum Nauki, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, Natural Environment Research Council, H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions
Awards: Assessing Individual And Local Scale Forest Vulnerability To Mortality From The 2019 Extreme Drought In Central Europe, European Beech Forests for the Future: Ecological, economical, and policy analysis of beech forest conservation under the Natura 2000 Network, ForeSight: Predicting and monitoring drought-linked forest growth decline across Europe, G7403413988, The persistence of relict populations under climate change, The persistence of relict populations under climate change
OpenAlex ID: W7151928261