The Forest Baseline Hypothesis: A Framework for Understanding Forest-Climate Teleconnections
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Current climate models calculate anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (−1.1 W/m², IPCC AR6) as the difference between present-day and preindustrial conditions. This calculation implicitly assumes a forest-defined preindustrial CCN baseline. We hypothesize that deforestation does not merely reduce current aerosol flux, but fundamentally alters the reference state against which all anthropogenic forcing is measured. Theoretical basis: (1) nucleation contributes 35–55% of global CCN, (2) biogenic SOA dominated preindustrial continental aerosol composition, (3) cloud sensitivity was 2× higher under pristine conditions, and (4) groundwater access is the enabling condition for forest BVOC emissions. A critical but unmeasured pathway is the convective lofting of biogenic aerosols to 10–15 km and their cloud-seeding effect during Hadley descent as INP in cirrus and mixed-phase clouds. Empirical tests: Statistical Granger causality tests with real AERONET data do not confirm the aerosol transport hypothesis at conventional significance levels; however, physical mechanism analysis (Monte Carlo, N=10,000) yields a median estimate of ~130% explanatory power for the water + aerosol pathway. Live satellite observation (10 January 2026) documents ice-crystal transport from the Caribbean to Europe in 24.6 hours via jet stream, providing direct visual evidence of the transport mechanism. Status: This is a hypothesis paper proposing a research framework. The evidence is suggestive but not conclusive.
Author: Mayer, Jörg
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7152542465
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