Forecasting the physical medicine and rehabilitation workforce through 2037: National and geographic disparities in supply and demand
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R) physicians manage patients with complex functional impairments due to stroke, spinal cord injury, traumatic brain injury, congenital conditions, progressive neurological disorders, and chronic musculoskeletal conditions. These patients often require long-term, resource-intensive care. However, long-term projections of the national physiatry workforce remain limited, and existing estimates do not account for access disparities. OBJECTIVE: To forecast national and geographic trends in PM&R workforce supply, demand, and adequacy through 2037, under current and expanded access scenarios. DESIGN: Forecasting analysis using the Health Workforce Simulation Model, developed by the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, and publicly available federal datasets. SETTING: National and state-level workforce projections in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Not applicable. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Projected national and state-level workforce adequacy, defined as the ratio of supply to demand in full-time equivalents (FTEs), from 2022 to 2037 under status quo and reduced barriers scenarios. RESULTS: From 2022 to 2037, PM&R supply is projected to increase 10.6%, rising from 11,660 to 12,830 FTEs. Over the same period, demand increases by 8.1% under the status quo scenario (12,780 to 13,820 FTEs) but reaches 18,060 FTEs under the reduced barriers scenario. National adequacy improves slightly under the status quo (91% to 93%) but remains flat under reduced barriers (71%). Metropolitan areas maintain higher adequacy than nonmetroplitan areas, which remain severely underserved. State-level projections show persistent disparities, with adequacy ranging from 29% in West Virginia to 200% in the District of Columbia. By 2037, PM&R ranks 13th in adequacy under the status quo and 25th under reduced barriers among 37 specialties. CONCLUSIONS: Workforce projections suggest persistent and uneven shortages in PM&R, particularly in nonmetropolitan regions and under scenarios of expanded access. Strategic efforts to expand training capacity and improve geographic distribution are warranted to meet future rehabilitation care needs.
Source: PM&R
DOI: 10.1002/pmrj.70123
Language: English
Subfield: Emergency Medical Services
Field: Health Professions
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7154533635