Work

From willingness to wait to sustainable impact: Smoothing e-commerce delivery volume peaks

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Willingness to wait is often promoted as a path towards more sustainable e-commerce deliveries, yet its impact depends on how firms use the operational flexibility it creates. We analyze two approaches: concentrating deliveries to minimize route distance versus spreading deliveries to smooth peaks and minimize fleet size. We adopt a strategic modeling approach that captures the flexibility created by customers’ willingness to wait and uses continuous route-length approximations to estimate total route distance and fleet requirements. Using e-commerce delivery data from the Netherlands, we find that concentrating deliveries yields substantial distance savings only at very high willingness-to-wait levels and requires much larger fleets, whereas spreading deliveries can reduce fleet size with only a modest increase in distance. Once life-cycle emissions of the delivery fleet are considered, spreading deliveries can therefore lower CO2 emissions, whereas concentrating deliveries can increase them.

Source: Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment

DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2026.105349

Authors: Marith J. Zeelenberg, Onur A. Kilic, Paul Buijs

Institution: University of Groningen

Language: English

Topic: Urban and Freight Transport Logistics

Subfield: Building and Construction

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Responsible consumption and production, Climate action, Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,450