The devil’s in the details when using correlative and mechanistic species distribution models to inform multispecies and ecosystem models
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The ability to predict spatial distributions of marine species has advanced rapidly in recent years. Benefits include extrapolating habitat maps when data are sparse, thus improving our ability to quantify shifts in species ranges seasonally and over past decades, understanding the ocean conditions that drive these shifts, and projecting spatial redistribution due to climate change. Efforts have begun to couple these spatial distributions to complex multispecies and end-to-end-ecosystem models. The resulting integration of distributions, stock size, trophic interactions, and fishing effects allows for more realistic dynamics than what either model type is likely to attain alone. Coupling species distribution models to multispecies and ecosystem models is intuitively attractive, yet presents us with multiple decisions and approximations. Here we identify best practices for the detailed decisions (“the devil’s in the details”) required for such coupling. We summarize lessons learned from five case studies in the California Current and Peru Current ecosystems, the Celtic Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska, with a focus on examples regarding small pelagic fish.
Institutions: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center, University of California, Santa Cruz, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Ifremer, Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, L'Institut Agro, Dynamique et durabilité des écosystèmes : de la source à l'océan, National Academy of Sciences, University of Concepción, Instituto del Mar del Peru, University of Alberta, University of Washington, North Pacific Research Board, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Montpellier, Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center, East Carolina University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Life below water
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7154689380