A real options approach for valuing storage contracts of hydrogen–methane gas blends
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Decarbonization and growth of variable renewable generation have increased interest in hydrogen as a low-carbon energy carrier. Underground hydrogen storage in geological formations is one of the few scalable options for large-capacity energy storage, and retrofitting existing natural gas infrastructure to store methane–hydrogen blends offers a practical transition pathway. Yet valuing such storage contracts is difficult because hydrogen markets remain immature. This paper develops a real-options framework for methane–hydrogen storage contracts with a prescribed hydrogen energy fraction. Extending the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman approach used for natural gas storage, the model incorporates stochastic hydrogen prices and blend-specific operational constraints, including reduced effective energy capacity. Contract values and optimal operating policies are computed by solving a multi-factor HJB equation with a semi-implicit finite-difference scheme. The framework is verified against natural gas benchmarks and assessed by Monte Carlo cash-flow evaluation. Results show how value and policies depend on blend ratio, volatility, capacity, and contract duration. • We propose a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman framework to price underground H 2 –CH 4 storage contracts. • The optimal control PDE is used to value contracts under various price dynamics and operating constraints. • The proposed model can inform the design of subsidies and incentives to de-risk hydrogen storage investments.
Institutions: Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Universidade da Coruña
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,730
Award: G6616913151
OpenAlex ID: W7154719960