A Physics-Exhaustive Multi-Buffer Model for European Summer Temperature
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Errata note v2.0.1 (2026-04-18): This version adds errata.md, a clarification note explaining that CO₂ was intentionally excluded from Paper 9's predictor set. No findings of v2.0 are modified. A forthcoming Paper 10 will test the CO₂ + forest-water joint model in a separate preregistered protocol. See errata.md for full rationale.Paper 9 v2.0 of the Waldkühlung series (Mayer). Preregistered prospective-prediction test of the forest-water teleconnection framework (Papers 1-8) as a monthly multi-target climate predictor over Central Europe (47-54°N, 6-16°E), 1950-2024. Architecture: walk-forward PCMCI+ causal graph discovery (one graph per test year); soft-threshold activator on each discovered edge encoding tipping-point physics; shared encoder with target-specific logistic heads for T2m, precipitation, and soil moisture. 16 preregistered predictors plus a newly constructed anthropogenic-drainage index from FAO Central-European aggregates (captures the 1970s EEC/CAP intensification wave at +0.84σ/decade). Results on 2001-2024 walk-forward (N=288 months): (i) precipitation meets the preregistered ±5pp calibration gate for all three tercile classes (cool 0.2pp, normal 2.4pp, warm 2.2pp); (ii) temperature accuracy 52.8% (vs 33% chance) but calibration structurally blocked by climate-regime shift 1980-2000 → 2001-2024 — gate failure itself quantifies the climate shift (60% warm-class observed vs 33% expected); (iii) soil-moisture calibration partial (normal class passes); (iv) Paper-8 Amazon→Europe cascade reproduced out-of-sample at lag=6 months, β=-0.09, p<0.05. The anthropogenic drainage index shows two historical landscape-engineering waves (1933 RAD era, 1970s EEC/CAP) preceding the 1990s climate regime break by ~20 years — suggesting a phase-1/phase-2 dynamic. Published bilingually (German + English) as separate single-column PDFs with 6 auto-generated figures. Related: Paper 8 (10.5281/zenodo.19637931) provides the monthly causal graph that Paper 9 operationalises prospectively.
Author: Mayer, Jörg
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7154830293
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