Work

Scenario-based energy system planning for Samoa's clean energy transition to 2050

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) face complex energy transition challenges arising from geographic isolation, fossil fuel dependency, land constraints, and climate vulnerability. The study conducts a techno-economic assessment of Samoa’s energy system using EnergyScope Typical Days. This study stress-tests the main transition challenges through scenario analysis. Five scenarios spanning 2025–2050 are examined: a Reference Scenario, Increasing Indigenous Primary Energy Supply, Natural Disaster Shock, Emissions-Constrained Decarbonization, and Innovation Shift. Results show that under the Innovation Shift scenario, Samoa can achieve over 85% renewable energy in total primary supply by 2050 while accommodating a 45% increase in electricity demand. Biofuels and solar photovoltaics account for up to 38% and 30% of total supply, respectively. Battery energy storage and electric vehicles enhance system resilience under disaster conditions, with up to 819 MWh of distributed EV storage required to meet 10% of national demand. Emissions-constrained pathways demonstrate escalating marginal abatement costs, rising from $470 USD/tCO 2e in 2030 to over $3,000 USD/tCO 2e by 2050. The Innovation Shift scenario highlights a system characterised by full renewable electricity, extensive electrification, and sector-coupling through biogas and hydrogen, showing that Samoa’s long-term transition is shaped more by strategic design choices than by absolute cost values. • Adapts EnergyScope Typical Days to a small-island system with land and grid constraints • Integrates disaster shocks, sector coupling, and sequential 5-year pathway modelling • Quantifies trade-offs between cost, emissions, and resilience across five scenarios • Demonstrates limits of emissions-only optimisation without structural system change • Provides a transferable whole-energy-system framework for PSIDS energy planning

Source: Smart Energy

DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2026.100244

Authors: Nicollo Moeono-Alaiasa, Xavier Rixhon, Francesco Baldi, Martin Atkins, Michael Walmsley, Tupuivao Junior Vaiaso

Institutions: University of Waikato, UCLouvain, National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, National University of Samoa

Language: English

Topic: Integrated Energy Systems Optimization

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Climate action, Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,750