A quantitatively validated Latin American model for corruption risk detection in public procurement open data
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This research presents the Latin American Integrated Risk Model (LAIRM), a formally delineated and reproducible computational framework aimed at improving the identification of corruption risks in public procurement processes across Latin America. The LAIRM was developed to address the limitations of current international benchmarks. It employs a robust mathematical structure grounded in institutional and principal-agent theories to combine weighted factors, such as non-competitive bidding, vendor opacity, and post-award modifications. Cross-validation and risk testing using open data from Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia validated the model’s efficacy. The results showed an F1-score 15% higher than the World Bank’s Red Flags framework, with an 18% to 25% increase in early detection probability. By demonstrating that this evidence-based method is applicable to both large and small-scale projects, this study bridges theoretical depth with practical value. Future work is outlined to ensure proper systemic implementation and continuous accuracy of the results.
Source: Revista de Administração Pública
Author: GABRIEL SILVA
Institution: Universidad Latinoamericana de Ciencia y Tecnología
Language: Portuguese
Subfield: Strategy and Management
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7155160038
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