Work

Weather-resilient electricity and hydrogen pathways in Finland, Sweden, and Norway under capital-cost uncertainty

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This article studies the development of integrated electricity and electrolytic hydrogen production systems in Finland, Sweden, and Norway under capital-cost uncertainty. We contribute to the existing literature by conducting a comprehensive scenario analysis with alternative capital-cost pathways for wind, solar PV, nuclear power, and hydrogen technologies, while explicitly incorporating weather resilience in system optimisation. Applying an energy system model, we optimise capacity expansion and energy dispatch across the power and hydrogen sectors through 2060. The model meets growing electricity demand with increasing wind and solar installations and a wide set of flexibility measures in all scenarios. Wind becomes the dominant source of power generation, although solar PV gains importance under optimistic capital-cost scenarios. New nuclear capacity is not expanded in any scenario, but long-term operation investments are made in full. Electrolysers operate with relatively constant loads in most scenarios, supported by dispatchable generation, but provide increasing demand response with declining capital-cost assumptions. Seasonal and inter-annual balancing for the power sector is mainly provided by biogas turbines, while lithium-ion batteries become increasingly important for providing short-term flexibility. Finally, we find that expanding inter-regional electricity transmission is cost-effective for flexibility and leveraging regional weather variability, and that hydrogen transmission gains competitiveness with higher assumed capital costs for electrolysers and hydrogen storage.

Source: Energy

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2026.141118

Authors: Sami Tarvainen, Eero Hirvijoki, Ilkka Keppo

Institution: Aalto University

Language: English

Topic: Integrated Energy Systems Optimization

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,260