Prediction of cognitive test scores: a comparison of brain structure, health, demographic, and cognitive data across adulthood
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Cognitive performance prediction may help identify early cognitive decline. However, the heterogeneity of research findings impedes the identification of key predictors. This study used 21,877 participants (25–74 years) from the German National Cohort (NAKO Gesundheitsstudie, NAKO) to systematically predict cognitive test scores based on brain structure, demographic, health-related, and cognitive data. Importantly, validation analyses were performed across study sites and external samples (1000BRAINS). Higher predictability was observed in the total sample compared to age-specific subgroups (10% difference in explained variance). Demographic (e.g. age) and cognitive data (e.g. memory) outperformed brain structure (e.g. grey matter volume) and health-related data (e.g. hypertension). Cognitive tests were differentially predictable, most evident between episodic memory and motor speed (R 2 ≤ 0.32 versus R 2 ≤ 0.18). Differences in predictability between age groups finally highlight the importance of comparing prediction outcomes between adult lifespan and age-specific groups to elucidate general and age-sensitive predictors of cognitive test scores.
Source: GeroScience
Authors: Camilla Mendl-Heinisch, Nora Bittner, Tatiana Miller, Paulo Dellani, Fabian Bamberg, Klaus Berger, Patricia Bohmann, Josua A. Decker, Agnes Flöel, Karin Halina Greiser, Manuela Harries, Jan Kapar, Thomas Keil, Carolina J. Klett-Tammen, Lilian Krist, Thomas Kröncke, Michael Leitzmann, Thoralf Niendorf, Annette Peters, Tobias Pischon, Oliver Riedel, Steffen Ringhof, Christopher L. Schlett, Matthias B. Schulze, Mark O. Wielpütz, Kerstin Wirkner, Svenja Caspers, Christiane Jockwitz
Institutions: Forschungszentrum Jülich, Düsseldorf University Hospital, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, University of Freiburg, University Medical Center Freiburg, University of Münster, University Hospital Regensburg, University of Regensburg, University Hospital Augsburg, Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Universität Greifswald, German Cancer Research Center, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, University of Bremen, Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology - BIPS, University of Würzburg, Bayerisches Landesamt für Gesundheit und Lebensmittelsicherheit, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Max Delbrück Center, Helmholtz Munich, Deutsches Zentrum für Psychische Gesundheit, Institut für Medizinische Informationsverarbeitung, Biometrie und Epidemiologie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Freie Universität Berlin, University of Potsdam, German Institute of Human Nutrition, Leipzig University
Language: English
Subfield: Psychiatry and Mental health
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $2,890
OpenAlex ID: W7155198554