Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Understanding how species are exposed to different types of extreme events is an emerging priority to inform biodiversity conservation under climate change. Using climate impact projections and species range data, we predict changes in exposure to droughts, heatwaves, river floods and wildfires for 33,936 terrestrial vertebrate species and 794 ecoregions. By 2050, under a medium-high emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), on average 74% of the area within species' current geographic ranges are projected to be exposed to heatwaves, 16% to wildfires, 8% to droughts and 3% to river floods. These trends include species-rich areas in the Amazon basin, Africa and Southeast Asia. By 2050, 22 ecoregions, primarily in mid-latitudes, are estimated to have at least 50% of their area exposed to two or more types of extreme events, increasing to 236 ecoregions by 2085 (SSP3-7.0). By 2085, 36% of the area within species' ranges are projected to be exposed to multiple event types (SSP3-7.0). These findings highlight the need for further research into species' sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, and for conservation strategies that address the impacts of multiple extreme events.
Source: Nature Ecology & Evolution
Authors: Stefanie Heinicke, Karim Zantout, Hjalmar S. Kühl, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Sandra Zimmermann, Maik Billing, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Stijn Hantson, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Benedikt Mester, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Kedar Otta, Yadu Pokhrel, Katja Frieler
Institutions: Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences, Senckenberg Museum für Naturkunde Görlitz, International University Institute (IHI) Zittau, Technische Universität Dresden, University of Potsdam, University of Nottingham, Technical University of Crete, Universidad del Rosario, The University of Tokyo, Simon Fraser University, Swiss Re (Switzerland), Goethe University Frankfurt, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Michigan State University
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $12,690
OpenAlex ID: W7155547734