Work

Potential futures for the IPCC’s approach to artificial intelligence

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: During the first six assessment cycles of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools were not widely available. This has rapidly changed. The IPCC will need to make choices about how to use artificial intelligence powered applications in literature identification, literature assessment, and communicating the contents of the report. These are not merely technical decisions, but sociopolitical challenges, as the IPCC has a social function of creating a shared basis of reality for addressing climate change. To explore these challenges, this paper describes four scenarios of potential AI development: rapid adoption of AI agents, perceptions of superior AI reliability, caution among the research community, and public backlash to AI. If the IPCC can navigate these emergent challenges, there is an opportunity for it to serve as a learning opportunity for other institutions grappling with how to do scientific assessment in a world with generative AI. Developments in generative Artificial Intelligence and society’s perception of its safety shape four distinct scenarios of genAI use, from fast adoption to public backlash, that will shape socio-political challenges for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Source: Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03514-y

Authors: Holly Jean Buck, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Shinichiro Asayama, Oliver Geden

Institutions: University at Buffalo, State University of New York, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Imperial College London, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Language: English

Topic: Ethics and Social Impacts of AI

Subfield: Safety Research

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,490