A multi-metric assessment of housing affordability in Jeddah with policy-scenario modeling under vision 2030
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Introduction Conventional housing affordability measures, such as rent-to-income ratios, support comparability but often mask transport burdens and welfare deficits across household types. This study addresses the need for a multidimensional framework that captures the full complexity of housing stress in car-dependent metropolitan contexts. Methods We develop and apply a multi-metric affordability framework for Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, aligned with SDG 11.1 and Vision 2030 reforms. The framework integrates three lenses: (i) ratio-based housing cost overburden (40% threshold, with 30% sensitivity benchmark); (ii) residual-income (shelter poverty) diagnostics comparing post-housing income to minimum essential budgets; and (iii) Housing-plus-Transport (H+T) affordability combining housing and commuting costs (≤45% benchmark). Data are drawn from the Ejar Rental Index, GASTAT’s Real Estate Price Index (REPI), national household expenditure surveys, and institutional parameters from SAMA and the National Housing Company, all standardized to a 2025Q4 baseline. Ex-ante policy simulations evaluate financing adjustments, supply-side interventions, transport improvements, and integrated scenarios using an Equity Improvement Index (EI) to assess distributional impacts. Where findings derive from estimation rather than directly observed data, results are reported with sensitivity ranges. Results Estimated shelter poverty (24.3%) affects nearly twice the households identified as housing-cost overburdened (12.3%), with an estimated 12.8% experiencing “hidden unaffordability” missed by ratio metrics—concentrated among large households (43.2% of 7+ person households) and middle-income groups. Peripheral districts appear most affordable under housing-only metrics (median RTI 24.1%) but become least affordable under H+T analysis (42.5%), a spatial re-ranking of 18.4 percentage points. Hedonic estimates confirm that distance to CBD significantly influences rents (elasticity −0.078), with accessibility improvements capitalized at rates consistent with transport cost savings. Under the modeled scenarios, financing adjustments are associated with modest, regressive gains (EI < 1.0); supply-side interventions are associated with larger, progressive improvements (EI 1.08-1.24); transport improvements show the most progressive targeting (EI 1.63) and the largest reduction in H+T unaffordability (−4.2 percentage points); and integrated interventions combining supply pricing with transport investment show the largest overall gains (H+T unaffordability −6.8 percentage points, shelter poverty −5.2 percentage points, EI 1.41). Discussion Single-metric approaches systematically misrepresent both the incidence and spatial distribution of housing burden in Jeddah. The multi-metric framework, calibrated to Vision 2030 institutional parameters, provides a more complete diagnostic basis for policy design. Findings support integrating transport and land-use planning into housing affordability governance, targeting interventions to populations and places revealed by multi-metric diagnostics, and adopting coordinated delivery frameworks that bundle housing and transport investments to advance Vision 2030 objectives and SDG 11.1 monitoring.
Source: Frontiers in Built Environment
Author: Samer Sami Baesse
Institution: King Abdulaziz University
Language: English
Topic: Housing Market and Economics
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,353
OpenAlex ID: W7156930906