Work

Enhancing the Temperature Forecast Accuracy of the ZJOCF Model Using AI-Based Station-Level Bias Correction

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Liuchun Lake area, located in the high-elevation and topographically complex western region of Zhejiang Province, exhibits temperature variability strongly influenced by terrain-induced dynamics and local microclimates. The Zhejiang Operational Consensus Forecasts (ZJOCF) model shows pronounced systematic biases in this area, making it difficult to meet the demand for short-term, fine-scale forecasts in cultural-tourism applications. Using observational data from four stations at different elevations, this study analyzes how ZJOCF temperature forecast errors vary with altitude, develops a station-level machine-learning temperature bias-correction model, and evaluates its performance in terms of accuracy, mean absolute error (MAE), error distribution, and control of extreme errors. Results show that the accuracy of the raw forecasts decreases significantly with increasing elevation, with high-altitude sites exhibiting distinct warm biases and strong fluctuations. After correction, the 72 h forecast accuracy at the four stations increases to 69–71% (up to 40.8% at the mountaintop station), MAE is reduced by more than 60% on average, extreme-error cases decrease by 40–60%, and the error distribution shifts from a scattered multi-peak pattern to a concentrated single-peak structure. These findings demonstrate that station-level machine-learning correction can effectively mitigate structural errors in ZJOCF temperature forecasts over complex terrain, providing a reliable technical pathway for refined meteorological services in mountainous regions.

Source: Atmosphere

DOI: 10.3390/atmos17050439