Substrate-Matched Financial Critical Slowing Down: A Cross-Crisis Test of DFG H4-β
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This record contains Document 03 of the DFG Empirical Programme submission package: Paper B-H4 — Substrate-Matched Financial Critical Slowing Down: A Cross-Crisis Test of DFG H4-β. This synthesis paper tests the DFG H4-β prediction that financial crises are preceded by critical-slowing-down-style early-warning signatures, operationalised primarily as rising rolling-window variance in stress observables. The paper refines the original H4-β claim into a bounded, substrate-matched form: financial CSD is most reliably detectable when the stress observable’s channel matches the crisis substrate. The paper evaluates seven major crises from 1987 to 2020 across 13 source series / 18 observable transforms spanning US credit, US bond and volatility indicators, EU systemic stress, China FX, and China-linked macro-financial indicators. It includes null-window false-positive controls and distinguishes matched-observable detection from unmatched-observable failure. The central finding is that 7/7 crises are detected at ≥75% under matched observables and windows, while the apparent failures of Black Monday 1987, EZ Debt 2011, and China 2015 are reclassified as substrate-mismatch or window-mismatch artefacts. Six of seven crises show stronger specificity, while Black Monday is treated as compatible with lower specificity confidence due to its shorter one-year buildup window and higher null false-positive rate. The bounded conclusion is that DFG H4-β is not a universal one-indicator financial warning law. It is a regime-bounded prediction: financial CSD is detectable when stress observable and crisis substrate match, and may fail when they mismatch. The detected variance trends are interpreted as CSD-compatible / fold-like buildup signatures, not as proof of strict fold-bifurcation dynamics. This record is part of the DFG Empirical Programme submission package. It assumes the regime-atlas methodology established in Document 01, the Compatibility Atlas v1.3. Cell-level incompatibility should be interpreted as a regime-boundary marker rather than theory-level falsification. AI use disclosure. Generative AI (OpenAI GPT) was used substantively in preparing this work, including source comparison, drafting and editing, and, where applicable, mathematical and counterexample checks and the writing and running of supplementary code. The research questions, framework and final claims were directed and reviewed by the author, who takes full responsibility for the content, including the accuracy of all references and reported numbers.
Author: Seol, Bin
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7159581931
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