The Coming Labor Gap: A Quantitative Approximation of Workforce Deficit Under Demographic Decline and AI Transition
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: This paper provides a quantitative estimation of the emerging global labor gap resulting from the intersection of demographic contraction and technological restructuring via AI. By normalizing data into Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) units, we demonstrate that demographic decline will remove significantly more workers (300–500 million) than AI will displace (100–150 million) within the 2030–2050 horizon. The temporal mismatch between exponential AI disruption and demographic inertia creates a structural labor deficit that threatens the sustainability of global welfare systems. Under the framework of the Theory of Non-Derivable Admissibility (TNA), the labor market is modeled as a dynamical system transitioning from uniqueness to structural multiplicity ($\Delta \gg 1$), where the coexistence of vacancies and unemployment acts as a proxy for systemic entropy. We conclude that equilibrium cannot be restored by internal market mechanisms ($N_0$) alone, necessitating external selection operators ($N_1$)—such as shifting the tax base toward compute and automation—to ensure social contract viability in a shrinking population environment.
Author: Bresciano, Claudio
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7159689651
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