Hydropolitics and Climate Security in the Indus Basin: A Green Theory Analysis of Pakistan's Water Vulnerability
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The Indus Basin is a very hydrologically threatened and geopolitically disputed river system in the modern world. In the transboundary basin shared by Pakistan, India, China and Afghanistan, the downstream riparian state faces an existential collision of hydro political rivalry, fast disappearing glaciers and lack of institutions in water management. This paper uses the Green Theory as its main analytical focus to investigate the water vulnerability of Pakistan within the Indus Basin and how the anthropocentric state-centric conceptualizations of security marginalized ecological imperatives and non-human nature rights in the past. Based on the latest hydrological evidence, the 2021 UN Climate Change Report, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2022), and the water security analyses of the South Asia by the World Bank, the paper argues that climate change is becoming a multiplier of already existing hydro political tensions, which makes the Indus Waters Treaty (1960) even more ineffective. The paper also argues that the agrarian economy of Pakistan (which contributes about 19.2% of the GDP and utilizes more than 37% of the labor force) is being subjected to catastrophic disruption by the estimated 10-40% of river discharge that is projected to be decreased by 2050 with high-emissions scenarios. This study, based on a Green Theory framework, suggests an ecologically integrated post-anthropocentric water security that integrates beyond bilateral treaty systems and includes indigenous hydrological knowledge, ecosystem rights and third world climate financing. The implications that the findings have on the overall literature on environmental peacebuilding and climate diplomacy in South Asia are immense.
Author: Izba Zaheer
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7160025156