How resilience signals abrupt declines in vegetation productivity: globally uneven yet predictable
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Abrupt declines in vegetation productivity risk irreversible transitions. However, the magnitude of such declines (abruptness)—a key determinant ranging from nonlinear reversible transitions to nonlinear hysteresis transitions—remains poorly quantified. Using two long-term satellite datasets (VODCA and GIMMS NDVI3g), we quantified the abruptness of global vegetation productivity declines and evaluated the early warning performance of resilience indicators, including autocorrelation at the first lag (ACF1) and variance. We further investigated how climate, soil, vegetation, and human activities regulate abruptness across gradients of early warning capacity. Hotspots of high abruptness were identified in South America, Africa, and central Eurasia. ACF1 exhibited strong but regionally variable early warning signals, with peak performance in regions of intermediate vegetation productivity (0.88 ≤ VOD < 1.18). In these regions, intensified interactions among vegetation, climate, soil, and human activities acted to amplify abruptness. In contrast, the early warning capacity of ACF1 declined in both low- and high-productivity regions. These findings establish ACF1 as a context-dependent early warning of abrupt declines in vegetation productivity, advancing targeted resilience-based management of vulnerable ecosystems under ongoing global change.
Source: Ecological Processes
Authors: Maohong Wei, Xue Tang, Hailing Li, Lin Zhu, Weiqing Meng, Jianfeng Feng
Institutions: Nankai University, Tianjin Normal University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,670
Awards: G6395105684, G758439029
OpenAlex ID: W7160143645