Work

Multi-Scenario Modeling of Carbon Storage Services for Evaluating Land Use/Land Cover Protection Strategies in the Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Carbon is an essential component in the regulation of climate systems through the global biogeochemical cycle. However, changes in land use/land cover (LULC) have reduced the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems like watershed to store carbon. This shows the need for a policy framework that balances conservative objectives with agricultural demands, as watersheds are required to support carbon storage and food production. Previous studies have generally assessed carbon dynamics or LULC change separately, with limited integration of policy-driven scenarios. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct multi-scenario carbon storage modeling to evaluate LULC protection strategies in the Cimanuk Watershed, Indonesia, an area experiencing significant LULC pressures. The method used consisted of Support Vector Machine (SVM)–Markov, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), Geodetector, and Getis-Ord Gi*. A total of four scenarios were used to project LULC and carbon storage in 2042, which included Business as Usual (BAU), Paddy Field Protection (PFP), Forest Protection (FOP), and Paddy Field and Forest Protection (PFFOP). The results showed that forest area declined by 39,400 ha between 2015 and 2025, thereby reducing carbon storage. The PFFOP scenario was identified as the most viable, combining the protection of paddy fields and forests to balance agricultural production and carbon sequestration. Among the factors analyzed, slope exerted the greatest influence on carbon storage. Spatial cluster analysis showed that carbon hotspots were predominantly located in the upper Cimanuk sub-watershed. These results offered valuable insights into scenario-based sustainable watershed management to optimize carbon storage and maintain agricultural function. Furthermore, the proposed framework showed promising potential for application in other tropical watersheds, serving as a reference for decision-makers in sustainable watershed management.

Source: Earth

DOI: 10.3390/earth7030074

Authors: Salis Deris Artikanur, Widiatmaka Widiatmaka, Wiwin Ambarwulan, Irmadi Nahib, Wikanti Asriningrum, Ety Parwati

Institutions: National Research and Innovation Agency, IPB University

Language: English

Topic: Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life on land, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,448