The Hidden Costs of Recurring Drought: Climate Change and Economic Losses in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Mediterranean water systems face intensifying drought pressure under climate change, yet the long-term macroeconomic consequences of recurrent water restrictions remain largely unquantified at the metropolitan scale. This study estimates the cumulative economic costs of drought-induced water restrictions in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area (AMB) over 2016–2099 using a supply-driven Input–Output (Ghosh) model driven by six hydro-climatic projections. Drought conditions persist in more than half of all simulated months across all climate projections, generating substantial cumulative undiscounted losses of €52–61 billion through repeated restriction episodes rather than isolated extreme events. The present value of total GDP losses ranges between €8.4 and €41.4 billion depending on the discount rate applied (1%, 3% and 5%). Losses concentrate in service sectors due to strong intersectoral propagation effects, despite agriculture exhibiting the highest direct water dependence. The framework provides a transferable approach for assessing long-term climate-driven drought costs in metropolitan urban or regional economies.
Source: Sustainability
DOI: 10.3390/su18094266
Language: English
Subfield: Ocean Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,896
Awards: G1175115578, G1622782223, G2038104832, G2064873908, G210041235, G2262748287, G2355262757, G2601397997, G288263039, G3005324705, G300979063, G34346518, G3475136703, G3480869486, G3546882995, G3681454997, G4042783231, G410571670, G425668148, G4442677895, G451917667, G4526231891, G5080475149, Improving ClimAte Resilience of crItical Assets, G5195188938, G5539308778, G5852091828, G5967599077, G69051668, G7084143925, G8118709007, G929308097
OpenAlex ID: W7160309641
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