Global Kilometer‐Scale Climate Storylines Using Spectral Nudging
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Effective climate adaptation benefits from detailed, actionable information on how specific extreme events are influenced by climate change. Here we present the first global, kilometer‐scale coupled modeling framework that enables counterfactual reconstructions of recent weather events, including extremes, in different climates. The system is built on the IFS–FESOM model and applies scale‐selective spectral nudging of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation to ERA5 while allowing atmospheric small‐scale dynamics and thermodynamic processes as well as the land surface, ocean, and sea ice to evolve freely across contrasting climate backgrounds. This enables the replay of recent events across different climate states, including the 1950s, present‐day conditions, and a +2 K warmer climate. We demonstrate the system's skill in reproducing the observed variability on daily and longer timescales during the period 2017–2024, particularly in the extratropics. Furthermore, we evaluate its performance using high‐quality observations, including data from the MOSAiC expedition. We further present climate change storylines for a European heatwave in July 2019 and a major European flooding event in September 2024, Storm Boris. We thereby demonstrate how the use of kilometer‐scale resolution captures local‐scale intensification with local granularity, including details missed by coarser models. This framework forms a core operational component of the EU's Destination Earth Climate Digital Twin, enabling scalable, high‐resolution, circulation‐constrained climate storylines for science and decision‐making.
DOI: 10.1029/2025ms005326
Authors: Amal John, Sebastian Beyer, Marylou Athanase, Antonio Sánchez‐Benítez, Helge F. Goessling, Akil Hossain, Razvan Aguridan, Miguel Andrés‐Martínez, Aina Gaya‐Àvila, Suvarchal Kumar Cheedela, Philipp Geier, Rohit Ghosh, Ioan Hadade, Nikolay Koldunov, Sebastian Milinski, Matteo Nurisso, Xabier Pedruzo‐Bagazgoitia, Thomas Rackow, Irina Sandu, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jan Streffing, Emanuele Vitali, Thomas Jung
Institutions: Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, CSC - IT Center for Science (Finland), University of Bremen
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,650
OpenAlex ID: W7160760703