Multi‐Model Impacts of Dust on African Air Quality and Mortality Under Regional and Global Anthropogenic Aerosol Changes
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Decreases in anthropogenic aerosols will reduce fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ); however, meteorological feedbacks alter dust emissions, modifying air quality gains. We use eight Earth System Models from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) simulations to assess African climate and air quality responses to anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbations, including meteorological feedbacks on dust emissions. By 2050, African and global emissions reductions drive the largest continent‐average PM 2.5 decrease (0.92 ± 0.17 μg m −3 ; 5% and 1.35 ± 0.50 μg m −3 ; 7%, respectively) relative to SSP3‐7.0, though regional dust increases partially offset these reductions. Anthropogenic emissions reductions in the U.S. and Europe also lower African PM 2.5 by 0.29 ± 0.32 μg m −3 (2%) due to teleconnections of Northern Hemisphere warming influencing the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Inter‐model variability in dust and total PM 2.5 reflects differences in meteorological responses and dust emission parameterizations. Meteorological responses explain 90% of dust emissions variability across regions. Aerosol‐driven climate feedbacks on dust account for up to 70% of total PM 2.5 changes in the Sahara and Namib, offsetting up to 20% of anthropogenic PM 2.5 reductions across Africa. Under 2050 global and Africa‐wide anthropogenic aerosol reductions, 96,000 (95% CI: 54,000–137,000) and 84,000 (95% CI: 43,000–125,000) PM 2.5 ‐related deaths are avoided in Africa, respectively. Dust PM 2.5 contributes an uncertain 3.4% of the avoided deaths under global reductions and has no net effect under Africa‐wide reductions. Aerosol‐driven climate feedbacks may partially offset direct air quality gains, though their continental‐scale contribution remains small and uncertain.
DOI: 10.1029/2025jd046135
Authors: Joe Adabouk Amooli, Ron L. Miller, Kostas Tsigaridis, Sourangsu Chowdhury, Yanda Zhang, Catherine A. Toolan, Sharar Ahmadi, Robert J. Allen, Maxwell T. Elling, Annica M. L. Ekman, Luke Fraser‐Leach, Paul Griffiths, James Keeble, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Paul Kushner, Anna Lewinschal, Marianne T. Lund, Molly MacRae, Risto Makkonen, Joonas Merikanto, Larissa Nazarenko, Pierre Nabat, Declan O'Donnell, Naga Oshima, Geeta Persad, Steven T. Rumbold, Knut von Salzen, Bjørn H. Samset, Neil C. Swart, Toshihiko Takemura, Laura J. Wilcox, Daniel M. Westervelt
Institutions: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of California, Riverside, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Stockholm University, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, University of Toronto, University of Bristol, Lancaster University, Japan Meteorological Agency, Meteorological Research Institute, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, The University of Texas at Austin, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Kyushu University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,070
OpenAlex ID: W7160827574