Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: We consider the classical Maki--Thompson rumour model with $n$ initially ignorant individuals and one initial spreader. The final number of ignorants, divided by $n$, is known to satisfy the law of large numbers, the central limit theorem and the large deviation principle. We establish a moderate deviation principle for fluctuations of this proportion of order $b_n/\sqrt n$, where $b_n\to\infty$ and $b_n^2=o(\log n)$. The proof rests on the exact final-size distribution, sharp asymptotics for the associated automata numbers, and a uniform point probability expansion at the moderate deviation scale. Numerical comparisons of both tails illustrate the intermediate scale and the effect of early extinction on upper tail probabilities.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Wang, Shaochen, Yang, Guangyu
Language: English
Subfield: Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7160900670