Work

Climate change impacts on hydrology and electricity production – a case study from Drammen river basin in Norway

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: In this paper, we have assessed how climate change might impact hydrology and electricity production in the Drammen River basin. To assess climate change impacts, downscaled scenarios from several combinations of GCMs, RCMs and bias correction algorithms from both CMIP5 and CMIP6 were used by a gridded hydrologic model (HBV) to simulate runoff for a reference period and a future period. Thereafter the energy market model EOPS has been used to simulate electricity production, reservoir water levels, bypass and flood flows. In Drammen, we see an increase in runoff, a reduction in the average seasonal variation in runoff and an increase in year-to-year variability. Most of the increase can be used for electricity production. There is an increase in flood risk during autumn and early winter and higher drought risk during summer. The increase in the year-to-year variability will impose new challenges for water resources management in the Drammen river basin.

Source: International Journal of River Basin Management

DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2026.2754841

Authors: Kolbjørn Engeland, N. Ayrault, E. Gelati, T. J. Hegdahl, S. Huang, C. A. Veie

Institutions: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, University of Oslo

Language: English

Topic: Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Subfield: Water Science and Technology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: hybrid

Funder: European Commission