Modelling spatial trade-offs in urban sub-centre planning: A prospective scenario framework linking land value capture and residential welfare
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Urban sub-centres have become a central instrument for managing metropolitan growth, relieving congestion, and promoting polycentric development. Yet the long-term fiscal and distributional consequences of alternative sub-centre configurations remain poorly understood, particularly regarding how location, employment-housing balance, and transport connectivity jointly determine land value gains and residential welfare across a city-region. This study develops a spatial equilibrium modelling framework coupling household location behaviour with land market dynamics to evaluate how planning strategies shape land value uplift (LVU) and residential welfare over a twenty-year horizon. Applied to Shanghai through nine contrasting scenarios, the model endogenously resolves residential rents and location choices, converting these into estimates of net LVU (uplift net of acquisition costs) and consumer surplus. Results reveal a consistent spatial trade-off: coordinated sub-centres 10 to 20 km from the existing core generate the highest sub-centre net LVU—up to ¥5.5 trillion (5.5% of city-regional GDP) above the trend baseline—but intensify affordability pressures for central residents; more distant sub-centres improve city-wide welfare but yield lower local fiscal returns. No spatial mismatch scenario simultaneously achieves positive gains in both dimensions, underscoring the structural necessity of integrated employment-housing planning. By embedding household location choice within a prospective scenario framework, the study advances land value capture (LVC) research beyond retrospective hedonic assessment and connects the fiscal-equity trade-off to broader debates on spatial justice and inclusive metropolitan growth. The modelling approach is conceptually transferable, though realising theoretical uplift through LVC instruments depends critically on land tenure, planning capacity, and governance structure.
Source: Cities
Author: Tianren Yang
Institutions: Shenzhen University, University of Hong Kong
Language: English
Topic: Urban Planning and Valuation
Subfield: Geography, Planning and Development
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,000
OpenAlex ID: W7161146267